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''This article is a '''draft'''. It may be incomplete and is subject to changes and rewrites before being added to the Article category. Feedback would be apprecited on this article's [[Talk:Somestrangeflea/Calling the Game (Draft)|Talk Page]]''
{{Article
|Name=
|Type=Modding
|Author=somestrangeflea}}
==History==
'''Original Publication: September 21, 2008 by [[somestrangeflea]]'''<br>


This article discusses when a game of Mafia should be declared over by the [[Moderator]].


This article discusses in detail when a game of Mafia should be declared over and given to the scum.


==Introduction==
==Introduction==
Normally, in a standard game of Mafia, the Mafia Win Condition reads:
Normally, in a standard game of Mafia, the Mafia [[Win Condition]] reads:
<blockquote>You win when at least half of the living players are Mafia, or when nothing can prevent the same.</blockquote>
<blockquote>''You win when at least half of the living players are Mafia, or when nothing can prevent the same.''</blockquote>
The reasoning behind the &ge;50% rule was to prevent having to waste time by playing out situations in which the outcome of the game was already decided. For example, imagine this scenario going into [[Day]]:
This [[Win Condition]] was to prevent having to waste time by playing out situations in which the outcome of the game was already decided. For example, imagine this scenario going into [[Day]]:
* 2 [[Mafia]]
* 2 [[Mafia]]
* 2 Vanilla [[Townies]]
* 2 Vanilla [[Townies]]
It has become impossible for the Mafia to be lynched (assuming normal game mechanics, where it would take 3 players to lynch), and hence it is impossible for the Town to win the game. It has become customary in this situation for the [[Game Moderator]] to declare that the Mafia have won.
It has become impossible for the Mafia to be eliminated (assuming normal game mechanics, where it would take 3 players to eliminate), and hence it is impossible for the Town to win the game. It has become customary in this situation for the [[Game Moderator]] to declare that the Mafia have won.  


However, imagine this scenario going into [[Day]]:
When the Mafia control &ge;50% of the population, the Town cannot possibly eliminate the scum, and the scum are normally declared the winners of the game. This has become known as "The 50% Rule".
* 2 [[Mafia]]
 
* 1 [[Doc]]
 
* 1 [[Vigilante]]
==Fairness of The 50% Rule==
Whether or not The 50% Rule was fair or not became the subject of debate in [http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3864 this thread] discussing the standardization of rules and roles for [[Open Games]]. The situation first highlighted in the thread was this one:
 
 
===The Situation===
 
[[Thesp]]: But do you think the mafia should win if it's 2 mafia against a vig and doc only going into Day?
 
[[somestrangeflea]]: Well, since it's 2v2, there cannot possibly be a [scum] elimination. In that situation, [the game] would move straight into night, and the night choices would decide the game.
 
This situation sparked a debate regarding the fairness of The 50% Rule, in which there were two main arguments:
 
====Argument 1====
 
:The town only loses when there is no way they can possibly overcome the odds. Any chance, however small, should get played out.
;[[Mr. Flay]]
This argument works from the opinion that The 50% Rule exists ''solely'' as a time-saving tool to prevent the players and moderator wasting time playing out situations in which the outcome is already certain.
 
====Argument 2====
 
:There is no reason anyone should rationally expect this outcome to occur, and if I were playing in the game, I would be very surprised. There's even some game-historical precedent to the concept that once the mafia reach half of the living players in the game, they come out and openly slaughter everyone left. All games I run feature this aspect - even if the town could theoretically do something at night, they won't make it there.
;[[Thesp]]
This argument works using the opinion that the [[Mafia]] have an [[Endgame|Endgaming]] ability which is used once the Mafia consists of at least 50% of the players and kills any remaining non-Mafia players.
 
 
===Other Situations===
 
Other situations have since been noted in which The 50% Rule creates some dispute.
 
====Doublevoter====
 
This situation was highlighted by [[Kelly Chen]].
Imagine the following situation going into [[Day]]:
* 1 Vanilla Mafia
* 1 Doublevoter
 
=====The Problem=====
 
Despite a situation in which the Mafia would clearly win under The 50% Rule, the Town automatically wins, as the sole Townie controls enough votes to eliminate.
 
====Bulletproof Townie====
 
This situation was highlighted by [[Cogito Ergo Sum]].
Consider the following endgame situation going into [[Day]]:
* 1 Vanilla Mafia
* 1 Bulletproof Townie
 
=====The Problem=====
 
Neither group has the ability to eliminate the other faction.
 
Some will argue that the Bulletproof Townie's powers are made useless by an Endgame situation, and thus the Mafia will win the above situation.
 
However, others argue that the above situation is considered a [[Happily ever after]]. The Townie cannot eliminate the Mafia, and the Mafia can neither eliminate nor kill the Townie.
 
====Vigilantes====
 
Consider the following situation going into [[Night]]:
* 4 Vanilla Mafia
* 3 Vigilantes
 
=====The Problem=====
 
The Mafia has gained a majority of the population.
 
Some would argue that ending the above game would be unfair. If the Vigilantes were to shoot different Mafia members, it would be a 2v1 Endgame situation the next day, which gives the Town the opportunity to eliminate the final Mafia member and win the game.
 
Others argue that the statistical unlikelihood of three Vigilantes shooting three ''different'' Mafia members, which is about 1 in 9 if the kills are random, means that the situation can be disregarded and it is acceptable for the game to end in a Mafia win.
 
====Roleblockers====
 
This situation was first highlighted by [[Yosarian2]]. Consider the following situation going into [[Day]]:
* 1 Vanilla Mafia
* 1 Roleblocker
 
=====The Problem=====
 
In a similar fashion the the Bulletproof Townie problem, neither group has the ability to eliminate the other faction.
 
Neither group has the ability to eliminate the other. The situation differs somewhat from the Bulletproof problem, in that the Roleblocker is not a passive ability. Some would argue that because the Roleblocker makes a [[Night Choice]], that ending the game in a [[Happily ever after]] in this situation is somewhat more acceptable than ending it in the same way in the Bulletproof situation.
 
==The Conclusion==


Some would argue that, because the Mafia constitute &ge;50% of the town, that the game should be handed to the Mafia. However, others would argue that this shouldn't be the case because, even though the Town has lost the ability to lynch, the presence of Power roles could still allow the Town a chance, however small, of winning the game. Assuming that there is [[No Lynch]], then, depending on Night Choices, the situation the next day could be:
Whilst no distinct conclusion was ever reached regarding which of the two arguments was correct, it seemed that Mr. Flay's argument was more widely accepted that Thesp's.
# 2 scum remain - Scum win (caused by scum killing vig and vig killing doc)
# 2 scum v doc - Scum win (caused by doc preventing vig-kill on scum, and mafia killing vig. The next day, scum control the lynch.)
# 2 scum v vig - Scum win (caused by doc preventing vig-kill on scum, and mafia killing doc. The next day, scum control the lynch)
# 1 scum v doc - Scum win (caused by vig-kill on scum, and mafia killing vig. Scum kills doc the following night)
# 1 scum v vig - Draw (caused by vig-kill on scum, and mafia killing doc. No-lynch the next day, and both kill each other the following night.)
# 1 scum v vig + doc - Outcome Uncertain (caused by vig-kill on scum, and doc preventing kill on vig. Next day lynch decides the game)


Depending on how well Night Choices were made, it is possible for the Town to win. This would lead some to the conclusion that the &ge;50% rule doesn't function properly when power roles are in play, and that the game should continue until a definite conclusion has been reached. Others would argue that, regardless of what Night powers the town have, the scum should win at &ge;50%.
Because neither of the stances on The 50% Rule were accepted as "standard", it is important that [[moderators]] make it clear (particularly in Role PMs) how endgame situations will be resolved.


==Solutions==
-[[somestrangeflea]]
===Mafia Win at &ge;50%===
The game is called and handed to the Mafia if the Mafia member count is greater than or equal to the Townie count.
====Pros====
* The majority of games on MS are run using this solution, and so little change has to be made.
* Overall, it allows games to end faster, and prevents time wasting.
====Cons====
* Is this fair to the town? Even if the scum has a minute chance at winning the game, they should be given that chance.
===Mafia Win at >50%===
The game is called and handed to the Mafia if the Mafia member count is greater than the Townie count.
====Pros====
* Take a slightly modified version of the scenario above going into day:
** 3 [[Mafia]]
** 1 [[Doc]]
** 1 [[Vigilante]]
* The Mafia control the lynch, killing off one of the Townies, and can Night Kill the other. I am yet to see a situation wherby a >50% only rule wouldn't work effectively.


====Cons====
[[Category:Game Mechanics]]
* Could take up another Day cycle, wasting time where it may not be necessary.
[[Category:Rulesets]]
===Mafia Win When Loss Becomes Impossible===
====Pros====
* Guarantees a completely fair outcome, whereby all possible town power is used.
* Game can be called by the [[Moderator]] when it becomes impossible for the town to win, the original purpose of the &ge;50% rule.
====Cons====
* If a game does not end, the Mafia know that the Town has a way to thwart them, and this information could be used against the town to gain an advantage.

Latest revision as of 00:47, 3 April 2022

Type:
Author:

History

Original Publication: September 21, 2008 by somestrangeflea

This article discusses when a game of Mafia should be declared over by the Moderator.


Introduction

Normally, in a standard game of Mafia, the Mafia Win Condition reads:

You win when at least half of the living players are Mafia, or when nothing can prevent the same.

This Win Condition was to prevent having to waste time by playing out situations in which the outcome of the game was already decided. For example, imagine this scenario going into Day:

It has become impossible for the Mafia to be eliminated (assuming normal game mechanics, where it would take 3 players to eliminate), and hence it is impossible for the Town to win the game. It has become customary in this situation for the Game Moderator to declare that the Mafia have won.

When the Mafia control ≥50% of the population, the Town cannot possibly eliminate the scum, and the scum are normally declared the winners of the game. This has become known as "The 50% Rule".


Fairness of The 50% Rule

Whether or not The 50% Rule was fair or not became the subject of debate in this thread discussing the standardization of rules and roles for Open Games. The situation first highlighted in the thread was this one:


The Situation

Thesp: But do you think the mafia should win if it's 2 mafia against a vig and doc only going into Day?

somestrangeflea: Well, since it's 2v2, there cannot possibly be a [scum] elimination. In that situation, [the game] would move straight into night, and the night choices would decide the game.

This situation sparked a debate regarding the fairness of The 50% Rule, in which there were two main arguments:

Argument 1

The town only loses when there is no way they can possibly overcome the odds. Any chance, however small, should get played out.
Mr. Flay

This argument works from the opinion that The 50% Rule exists solely as a time-saving tool to prevent the players and moderator wasting time playing out situations in which the outcome is already certain.

Argument 2

There is no reason anyone should rationally expect this outcome to occur, and if I were playing in the game, I would be very surprised. There's even some game-historical precedent to the concept that once the mafia reach half of the living players in the game, they come out and openly slaughter everyone left. All games I run feature this aspect - even if the town could theoretically do something at night, they won't make it there.
Thesp

This argument works using the opinion that the Mafia have an Endgaming ability which is used once the Mafia consists of at least 50% of the players and kills any remaining non-Mafia players.


Other Situations

Other situations have since been noted in which The 50% Rule creates some dispute.

Doublevoter

This situation was highlighted by Kelly Chen. Imagine the following situation going into Day:

  • 1 Vanilla Mafia
  • 1 Doublevoter
The Problem

Despite a situation in which the Mafia would clearly win under The 50% Rule, the Town automatically wins, as the sole Townie controls enough votes to eliminate.

Bulletproof Townie

This situation was highlighted by Cogito Ergo Sum. Consider the following endgame situation going into Day:

  • 1 Vanilla Mafia
  • 1 Bulletproof Townie
The Problem

Neither group has the ability to eliminate the other faction.

Some will argue that the Bulletproof Townie's powers are made useless by an Endgame situation, and thus the Mafia will win the above situation.

However, others argue that the above situation is considered a Happily ever after. The Townie cannot eliminate the Mafia, and the Mafia can neither eliminate nor kill the Townie.

Vigilantes

Consider the following situation going into Night:

  • 4 Vanilla Mafia
  • 3 Vigilantes
The Problem

The Mafia has gained a majority of the population.

Some would argue that ending the above game would be unfair. If the Vigilantes were to shoot different Mafia members, it would be a 2v1 Endgame situation the next day, which gives the Town the opportunity to eliminate the final Mafia member and win the game.

Others argue that the statistical unlikelihood of three Vigilantes shooting three different Mafia members, which is about 1 in 9 if the kills are random, means that the situation can be disregarded and it is acceptable for the game to end in a Mafia win.

Roleblockers

This situation was first highlighted by Yosarian2. Consider the following situation going into Day:

  • 1 Vanilla Mafia
  • 1 Roleblocker
The Problem

In a similar fashion the the Bulletproof Townie problem, neither group has the ability to eliminate the other faction.

Neither group has the ability to eliminate the other. The situation differs somewhat from the Bulletproof problem, in that the Roleblocker is not a passive ability. Some would argue that because the Roleblocker makes a Night Choice, that ending the game in a Happily ever after in this situation is somewhat more acceptable than ending it in the same way in the Bulletproof situation.

The Conclusion

Whilst no distinct conclusion was ever reached regarding which of the two arguments was correct, it seemed that Mr. Flay's argument was more widely accepted that Thesp's.

Because neither of the stances on The 50% Rule were accepted as "standard", it is important that moderators make it clear (particularly in Role PMs) how endgame situations will be resolved.

-somestrangeflea