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Secrets of the Anuket Topaz

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Name:
  • Secrets of the Anuket Topaz
Setup Size:
Players:
  • 13
Setup Type:
Designer:
Notes: Was originally ran as a closed setup.

Secrets of the Anuket Topaz is a 13-player open setup by northsidegal designed to balance the "escape" mechanic, where the Mafia must choose one of their members to be revealed and exit the game and win when all members have escaped without a single one being eliminated. Previous "escape" setup designs where a single scum elimination would immediately result in the scum team's loss were judged to be overly punishing on both town and scum: with the scummiest or weakest scum player escaping after day one if not eliminated, the game becomes primarily focused on day one. Secrets of the Anuket topaz aims to make the game slightly more forgiving while still rewarding good play for both town and scum.

Setup

Mechanics

  • The first two nights are skipped.
  • Day 1 and Day 2, if a member of the Mafia is eliminated, they must confirm 5 living players to be aligned with the town.
    • This will result in their loss if Mafia are eliminated both Day 1 and Day 2.
  • Starting from Day 3, the Mafia will begin escaping.
    • Each night, in addition to a mandatory kill, one of the Mafia must choose to escape, and will exit the game being revealed to be Mafia.
    • At this point, if just one of the Mafia is eliminated, the Mafia loses.
    • The Mafia win when all living members escape.
  • If no Mafia were eliminated Day 1 or Day 2, one member of the mafia will escape immediately following the end of Day 2.

Expected Value

Assuming random eliminations:

  • If there are 0 scum eliminations days 1 or 2, Town EV is 1-(8/10 * 6/7) = 0.31
    • The probability of this is (10/13 * 9/12)
  • If there is 1 scum elimination days 1/2, Town EV is 1-(4/6 * 4/5) = .466...
    • The probability of this is (3/13 * 5/7 + 10/13 * 3/12)
  • If there are 2 scum eliminations days 1/2, Town wins, and thus EV is 1.0
    • The probability of this is (3/13 * 2/7)

Thus, the total expected value for Town is (10/13*9/12)*0.31+(3/13*5/7+10/13*3/12)*.466+(3/13*2/7)*1 = 0.41

History

History
Open 785 - (Town Win)
Open 854 - (Town Win)
Open 889 - (Mafia Win)
Open 944 - (Mafia Win)
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