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Correlation Implies Causation

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Also known as Ignoring the Common Cause

Often independent factors are used to imply that one action causes another. A famous example is this:

  • Ice cream sales go up in the summer.
  • Criminal activity goes up in the summer.
  • Therefore, the consumption of ice cream is partly responsible for criminal behavior.
    (in truth, both actions are predicated by a different factor - increased temperatures)

In a Mafia game, this logical fallacy can be used to create an appearance of guilty behavior about someone else's actions. A common example is using someone's Lurking as evidence that they were avoiding eliminating someone of their Faction, or that they were the cause of a missed Night Choice. Frequently, the two actions are instead simultaneous but factually unrelated.