Conspiracy

A Mafia Mutation invented by Norinel. Its rules are available elsewhere online, so they don't need to be stated in full here. Basically, there's a 50/50 chance all the players but one are in the conspiracy. Everybody discusses for a bit, and then the people who aren't in the conspiracy have to decide whether or not the conspiracy exists.

This has never actually been played on MafiaScum, but its derivative, Political Conspiracy, has. OB5hoh <a href="http://rfjwcrfakxje.com/">rfjwcrfakxje</a>, [url=http://lirfykznluba.com/]lirfykznluba[/url], [link=http://xycfzugsixhg.com/]xycfzugsixhg[/link], http://wntqkdmjmoyo.com/

The Pie Observation

To the best of his knowledge, this modification was originally discovered by the user Pie_is_good. The game of conspiracy as it is commonly played is, in fact, unbalanced - a rational innocent will always guess that there is no conspiracy. There is a full 1/2 chance that a person will be an innocent and the game will be not contain a conspiracy, but there is only a 1/6 chance that a person will be an innocent and the game will contain a conspiracy. This means that, given the knowledge that a person is an innocent, it is three times more likely that the person is an innocent under no conspiracy than an innocent under a conspiracy. The way to remedy this problem is to simply modify the weighting - if there is a 3/4 chance of a conspiracy and a 1/4 chance of no conspiracy, the odds of being an innocent under a conspiracy and the odds of being an innocent not under a conspiracy are both 1/4. As this game can easily be modified to be played with more than 3 people, the odds of a conspiracy in an N player game should always be (N)/(N+1), and the odds of no conspiracy should be (1)/(N+1).

To put it another way, during the setup of an N player game, the following options are available:

• Conspiracy against Player 1
• Conspiracy against Player 2
• ...
• Conspiracy against player N
• No Conspiracy

A game should assign an equal probability (1/[N+1]) to each of the above options.