Appeal to Probability

An appeal to probability involves the assumption that because something can happen, it necessarily will happen. It can often be used as a form of Appeal to Emotion, particularly fear.

While there is a certain amount of probability assumptions in Mafia (see ...and they all lived happily ever after), relying on them to the exclusion of actually reading player behavior within a particular game can be dangerous. Assumptions of probability implying certainty can be particularly hard to spot, because the player making the initial argument can later say that they never meant to imply that the (worst possible) scenario would happen, only that it could happen.

This is not to be confused with actually calculating odds and making the most statistically sound choice.