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==WIFOM at a Glance==
#REDIRECT [[WIFOM]]
WIFOM is the circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that his behavior would be subject to scrutiny.  The term WIFOM (short for Wine In Front Of Me) is named for a segment of [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUee1WvtQZU "The Princess Bride"]:


<blockquote style='border:1px dashed #434343;background-color:#eee;padding:20px 20px 10px 20px;margin:10px;'>''"All right: where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right and who is dead."''<br /><br />
[[Category:Glossary]]
 
''"But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you. Are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet, or his enemy's?"''<br /><br /></blockquote>
 
In such situations one often may try to use what he knows of his opponent to make a better choice.  However, in some cases this leads to recursive reasoning: "But that's just what he wants me to think, so I'll do the opposite.  But maybe ''that's'' what he wants me to think, so I'll ''not'' do the opposite.  But maybe ''that's'' what he wants me to think..."
 
In [[Mafia (game)|Mafia]], the ability to determine a person's motives for their actions is a core element of Day play.  However, a sufficiently self-aware player can make plays that look unmistakably Townish as scum or unusually scummy as Town.  Thus, it is up to the observer to make a character judgment on whether the player really IS what they seem to be or faking it well.
 
WIFOM is arguably the most misapplied term in the Mafia lexicon, and for years the standard approach to has been to throw out any ambiguous evidence.  This is not optimal, as WIFOM situations are generally not purely random.  However, WIFOM arises precisely ''because'' someone is difficult to read, and the possibility of being wrong is inherent in making a choice.
 
Many times analyzing [[night kills]] is considered WIFOM, as only the killers can say with certainty why someone died.  This is especially true when the kill choices were unexpected.  At present, NK analysis is considered simply another possibly-reliable piece of evidence, neither useless nor authoritative.
 
==WIFOM as Game Theory==
 
=== Practical examples of WIFOM ===
 
* When chasing down a dangerous criminal, a policeman comes to a fork in the road.  To the left is a dark alleyway where the criminal would have a moderate chance of escaping (even if the cop correctly follows him that direction).  To the right is a well-lit boulevard where the criminal would ''surely'' be caught.  The policeman doesn't know which way the criminal went.  If he guesses wrong, the criminal will easily make a clean getaway. 
** If you were the criminal, which way would you go? 
** If you were the policeman, which way would you guess the criminal went?
* A large business is attempting to drive a smaller competitor out of the market.  The smaller business must begin production on one of two products: The Smidge, which will bring in $1 million worth of income, or the Widget, which will bring in $2 million worth of income.  If they select a ''different'' product than the large business, they will gain enough money to compete directly with the larger business.  If they select the same product, they will be run out of business. 
** What product should each company manufacture?
 
=== Mafia examples of WIFOM ===
 
* There is a claimed, proven [[cop]] and a hidden [[doctor]] and [[mafia]].  The mafia knows there is a doctor in the game. 
** As the doctor, who should you protect? 
** As the mafia, who should you kill?
* It is the final four, with two confirmed innocents and two non-confirmed innocents left alive.  You are one of the confirmed innocents, and you strongly believe player A to be scum.  The other confirmed innocent strongly believes player B to be scum.  At night, the proven innocent who believed player B is a scum, is killed. 
** Who should you vote for? 
** As scum in this situation, would you have killed the person accusing you or the person not accusing you?
* You are a Townie in three-player [[LyLo]] with two other players who have cross-voted - who you vote for will decide the game.  One of them has looked moderately scummy throughout the entire game and appeared to fly under the radar, while the other one has for the most part looked extremely pro-Town throughout - enough to make you wonder why they were never targeted by a [[night kill]].  Who should you vote for?
* You are the only [[Mafioso]] left going into Night with four players alive.  Of the three Townies remaining: one of them is a confirmed innocent who does not currently suspect you, one of them is a weak and lynchable player (an "easy lynch"), and one of them is a very thorough thinker who will drag LyLo out for days before making a decision.  Who should you kill?
 
==By Other Names==
In [http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2345881#p2345881 Mini 1002: Mafia en Français], [[DrippingGoofball]] determined that the French equivalent of WIFOM is '''LGCCMQLSVDMVEDJCLREHLBADTLIQAOECDL''' (Le Grand Cru Chassagne-Montrachet Que Le Sommelier Verse Dans Mon Verre Et Dont Je Contemple La Robe Et Hume Le Bouquet Afin De Tuer L'Idiot Qui A Ose Empoisonner Ce Divin Liquide).  To the chagrin of the Académie française, it is not clear if this term will catch on with French-speaking scummers.<br /><br />
 
[[Category:Logical Fallacies]]
[[Category:Theory]]

Latest revision as of 15:50, 2 May 2011

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