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User:Vampirate
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Hi i'm Vampirate, i'm not exactly sure how to start this and I will edit it from time to time.
There's been a mafia theory in my head for a while. It's called. Anticipation on Probability.
Anticipation on Probability: Basically using this theory, in theory can help your game. The whole theory revolves around the player making predictions on events that could come later and acting on it before.
Like anything the mafia timeline could be like a root of a tree. Certain events and player behavior patterns from the past could possibly tell you how things might shape up in the future. You know when you say 'yeah I can see that happening'? This theory revolves around that but takes it one step further. Let us say that in a mafia game the scum hit 'player x' which was a high profile target. In the next night they hit another. Well, by now it's probable that the scum are aiming to take out the most well known and threatening players. You as a town can view the evidence and if you had some type of protective role could maybe protect another high profile target, especially one who's been making strong cases in the thread.
Alright, but how to use this as scum? Well if you can figure out how the town 'might react' to a possible situation you could then act well prior and get the head start. In essence think a step ahead. If you could think a step ahead and know saying or doing something would turn into this result, then maybe you could stretch it further and think 2 steps ahead. By understanding how the past events unfold one could take a gamble on the future in the present.
Of course doing this requires you to have information before hand and this is much easier to do as scum than town as scum are much more informed. The only real element you can really control is yourself, so if you know doing or saying a certain thing will get this result, go do it.
This is all of course well known, I just coined a term to it. How good the actual theory is in practice depends on the player and circumstances in question.