Recognizing Reads: Confidence and Caution

Type: Play Author: Mastin2

History

Original Publication: September 28, 2013 by Mastin2

Original Thread.

Introduction

Another common problem I often see in games that I have several times touched but never focused upon is on giving reads. While I have explained how to present them, never have I explained the importance of actually giving them, and the strength associated with the read. In English, detailing the difference between being unsure of a read, needing to backtrack on a read, being confident in a read, and showing arrogance in a read. Towns rely on a network of information in order to win. They rely on communication between one another to coordinate efforts. Scum don't win games by using information a town player posts. They win by breaking the chains linking town players, and that largely has to do with the town players not properly talking to the rest of the town.

A vital skill for a town player, thus, is to be able to recognize the reads of another player, and to understand that there will always be a difference between confidence and caution in those reads.

Let's establish a few baselines.

You are not a scumhunting god.

Your reads will never be perfect, so you should never hold the arrogance in assuming they are. Nor should you let yourself present your reads that way, because it's a good way to get others to justifiably ignore your reads.

You need to be honest about your reads.

Tied to the above. You need to tell the truth about how strong the reads you have actually are. They're weak? Say it! It helps emphasize your reads when they're actually strong. Admittedly? If you're having doubts, it can occasionally be okay to lie about the strength of the read...short term! (And only for the purposes of gathering info to hopefully solidify it for real.) Never maintain that lie, because if you're lying, it'll show, and people can attack you (justifiably so!) when they pick up on it. (And they WILL pick up on it!)

Be honest and admit if you're having trouble reading. Even if you're generally a player who gets reads easily, we all have bad days. I've had them, I've seen people like Nachomamma8 have them, we all get those times where we simply cannot lock things down, so there's no shame in admitting it. Once it's out in the open, it makes it much easier for you to fix it, as players you think are town who think you're town will be more than willing to help you try and get some reads. In essence...by communicating the lack of strength, you can often find a lot OF strength.

Not confident? Do something about it!

Related to the above, you don't want to be waffling on all your reads. Trust me. It makes your reads to others be useless, and can open the gate for players to (semi-justifiably) attack you for "fence-sitting". Admit it, you've done it to another player; you're not immune to being accused of it yourself.

Don't be afraid to change your reads!

A problem far too many people seem to assume is that changing your reads is a bad thing. Reads evolve as the course of the game progresses. Yours should, too. When new evidence is brought up, you should be adjusting your reads to reflect that new evidence. Not stubbornly refusing to accept it. Yes, you'll be accused of backtracking. Doesn't matter. If you keep a read you no longer believe in, the fallout is much, MUCH worse than if you truthfully say you don't feel that way about a player anymore.

Every game will be different.

You'll need to adjust your exact strategy for each game you're in.

Now that we've established the base-lines, it's time for some theory and approach to getting and giving reads.

Don't overly-focus on a player.

Or even two or three. You should be focusing on the entire playerlist, not just a couple of names on it. The more info you give about players, the better the town is able to scumhunt as a result. That's not to say you should be focusing on every player, all the time! That's equally as bad, because a lack of focus is just as negative as too much focus. Key in on events. Prod around, poke, push, and look around, but never lose sight of other players. Even if they're not your current focus of attention, you shouldn't be neglecting to pay attention to their posts. Town or scum, they can be saying important things that you'd miss otherwise.

Clearly present your reads.

Ever been in the position where you're nightkilled, and are frustrated that nobody's following your reads? Or, worse, they're trying to follow them but are doing so wrong? Often-times, the problem is that the town players simply can't clearly follow along with what your thoughts actually were. (Because you were, effectively, hiding valuable information from the town without hiding it from the scum. You certainly didn't think that, but it was probably true--the scum saw it and the town didn't.) And chances are, far more often than not, that's a result of you having not given your reads unambiguously. Prodding players one at a time might have been a good approach to the game circa 2009 or so. But nowadays, a simple prod isn't enough to indicate your read on a player--quite the opposite, it's a way to muddy it. You need to be as explicit as possible with your reads. Leave no room for interpretation in them.

The easiest way to do so is with reads lists, although that is a subject of much contention. To explain, they give a one-post summary of things, rather than having to track things down throughout your iso. Trust me, most town players are too lazy to do an iso, especially if your iso is hundreds of posts long, to try and track down your reads. It's a pain in the ass, requiring reconstructing your posts in reverse-chronological order, piecing together a puzzle, and getting inside both your mind and the mind of whatever faction killed you. Most players aren't going to try, and those that do try often aren't going to get it right, and this is largely because there's some ambiguity that you didn't think existed, yet clearly did.

Town players are idiots.

Scum players, knowing that they're scum and that you're not, often hold the advantage of knowing what in your posts are good and what isn't. (Also, remember that scum are not as stupid as you think they are. You might think that handing out townreads gives away information. But chances are quite high that the scum figure it out anyway, and in fact, might even figure it out even easier if you didn't give the read away.) They also know why you were nightkilled. Thus, a scum player (likely having already searched through your posts to determine the viability of nightkilling you) is more likely to have your reads pinned down than town. The harder it is to pin your reads down, the more viable a nightkill on you is. Because towns are stupid. They are oblivious to the seemingly-obvious. They suck at picking up hints, no matter how unsubtle you thought they are. Anything that can be misinterpreted, will be. Even if they get things right, they can be talked out of it by scum presenting an alternative viewpoint that is less accurate, but seemingly legitimate.

If you want to prevent that from happening, you need to be able to best exploit the difference between confidence and caution. Reads lists are my example of a simple and easy way to do that, giving a handy reference for others to track, but if they're not your thing, then just keep that in mind.

Give tiers to your reads.

While not strictly necessary, it is an excellent way to demonstrate the strength of your reads. This is quite easy to do in a reads list (there's a reason I advocate them), but can be conveyed through other methods as well. By giving tiers to your read, you've effectively removed a ton of the ambiguity associated with them. Tiered reads are, in essence, a short, simple "ah!" guide to showing your confidence in a read (higher-tier) or your caution about it (lower-tier). You don't even have to officially give a tier to your reads. Just when talking about the player, make it unambiguous which way you lean.

By explaining the various levels of strength to your reads, you allow for that vital ability to communicate with others. In doing so, you've given them the chance to better work with you, to sync up with your thoughts. They know what you've said, and thus, know what they want you to talk more about. This little bit of focus to your play demonstrates how your reads are not equal, how some hold greater weight, and is an excellent way to make sure you are not misinterpreted. By showing more clearly the difference between your confident reads and your not-so-certain reads, you reduce the scum's ability to say, "HA! *your name* was wrong about *read you didn't really have much strength in*, and thus, is wrong about *read you were actually quite confident in*." And if you've played your fair share of games, you HAVE seen that and hated when it was said. Distinguishing between confident reads and cautious reads eliminates it, near-guaranteed.

When explaining reads, be concise.

No more than a sentence (or maybe two) should be needed to describe your read. Lengthy reads are harder to process, especially if you give them in a reads list. Certainly, you can give detailed descriptions! But you can't realistically expect people to read those longer blurbs, so keep things as succinct as possible. Deliver the important bits--the read, the confidence or lack thereof, and the reasoning. If you've done so, it's much easier for players to understand what you're saying and where you're coming from.

Don't force reads.

While it's bad to not have reads on players, it's much worse to force a read on a player. A convoluted read is going to be convoluted and blatantly show as having been such, quite badly, giving players quite justified ammo to be suspicious of you with.

Do GET reads!

You can (and should!) admit you don't have reads, but that's no excuse to slack off and do nothing about it. Try to fix it! Explain why you're having trouble pinning things down, and try to figure out a way to get out of it. The other players are more likely than not going to be there to help you. Let them! Use their input and build off of their posts (be it town or scum posts) to get acclimated to the game. If you're honest and transparent about your reads, if you admit that you're struggling to get a read, it can make it much, MUCH easier to obtain a read. In your desperation to pick up valid stuff, you may spew some BS, but it'll be town-motivated BS that the players are willing to forgive if it makes something productive. Just make sure it's clear you're doing this--again, ambiguity as to the caution behind your read can bite you in the ass.

Explain reads.

It's fine to not do so immediately; it's a fair tactic for gathering further information, and is essentially the lowest form of reaction test. But you will eventually need to explain where you're coming from, because if you don't tell others, why are they supposed to follow you? Because you're voting scum? How do they know you're not voting town? You're not omnipotent, so you'll need to explain why your read on them is better than theirs. Not giving that information is basically sabotaging the town, because they're not you--they don't understand instinctively what you see. They're restricted in what they're capable of understanding, of knowing, of tolerating. If you fail to communicate how you got your reads, of COURSE they're going to be ignored, because the town simply doesn't know how you were able to mystically obtain these reads and if they hold any validity. You shouldn't fear peer evaluation of your reads.

Take caution 'clearing'/condemning a player.

Even if you're really sure of your read, address the possibility of your read being wrong. This might seem like a scum tactic to leave a back door open, but it's not; at least, not when done properly. Quite the opposite, when employed effectively, it's a way of reinforcing your read. Explain the possibility of how your read could be wrong, and then why you feel it to be right, why it's probable that you are correct. (But again, it must be done well. You need to emphasize that this is not you showing caution on the read, but the opposite--explaining why you're confident in it.)

This has a few net effects. First off, it shows that you're being reasonable; your read is not confirmation bias. Second off, it shows a key element of humbleness. You're not arrogantly assuming you're right; you're explaining why you believe yourself to be right, and acknowledging how you could be wrong but don't think you are. If you show the ability to change your reads on a reasonable basis, the scum will be terrified of you. Because even if you're wrong now, they'll be deathly-afraid that you'll lock onto them later.

Show confidence in your reads.

If you're actually feeling awesome about your read, you shouldn't fear pushing it. Be aggressive about it. While you want to be reasonable and show that your reads are not absolute, you also want to be solid and to show that your strength doesn't waver.

...When it doesn't actually waver. A reminder once again to not lie about the strength in your read. At the very least, it'll damage your push when you actually ARE that confident in something. A player who lacks conviction is far less threatening to scum than a player who has a strong push, even if that push is wrong. Generally, scum will nightkill the player who has the best balance between the two: a player who is strong in their pushes, but smart enough to know when to back down, reassess, and push elsewhere.

And therein lies the larger picture:

Master the balance between the two.

The best players have done so, and display it quite effectively. The ability to change reads off of new information, and have the whole playerlist not be immune to scrutiny, but also not being overly-paranoid and attacking everyone. By showing these reasonable but solid pushes (even if incorrect), a town player will be at their strongest.

What to take from this when giving reads

Honesty, transparency, clarity, reason, and when appropriate, strength will give your reads the most bang for your buck.

What to take from this giving reads

Analyze a player's process and look for where their process is failing (if it's failing), and try to fix it for them. If the player is town, you can work with them better and get to a common understanding faster if they've followed this general process. If they're scum, then you'll have a much better understanding of where they come from, so knowing their scum-motivated mindset, it'll be much easier to find their scumbuddies.

In summary

The best way to give reads is to be unafraid of the consequences, while recognizing and addressing that there can be some.